Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
