Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.