Just eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
